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Risk-off. Elevated volatility and a sharp move in 10-year yields following Friday's stronger-than-expected PPI print are weighing on risk appetite. VIX above 18 combined with a flattening front end suggests hedging activity is picking up ahead of this week's Fed speak.
Friday's producer price index came in hotter than expected for the third consecutive month, reigniting concern that the disinflation trend is stalling. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 7 basis points on the open, briefly touching 4.65%, its highest level since November. Equities sold off in the final hour of trading as institutional desks repositioned ahead of the Fed blackout period beginning Tuesday.
The market is now pricing just one cut for 2025, down from three at the start of the quarter. Fed funds futures suggest the first reduction doesn't arrive until September at the earliest — and some desks are beginning to price a scenario where the Fed holds through year-end entirely. Watch CPI on Wednesday. A second consecutive upside miss would likely push yields toward 4.75% and reset risk assets sharply.
• Fed Governor Waller speaks at 10:30 AM ET — tone matters more than content.
• Treasury auctions $46B in 3-year notes at 1:00 PM ET. Demand will signal whether rate pain continues.
• Earnings: Goldman Sachs before the open. FICC revenue is the number that moves markets.